Robert P. Trost, Professor

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• Graduate and undergraduate Econometrics
• Principals of Microeconomics
• Intermediate Microeconomics

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• Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, George Washington University, May 1986 - Present.
• Vice President, Member of the Board of Directors, First Economic Analysis (FEA), 1999 to present.
• Consultant, Benchmark Forecasts, 1988 to present.

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• Chairman of the Board, CEO, and Co-Founder, Athens Fitness, Inc., 1998 - 2007.
• Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, George Washington University, September 1981 - May 1986.
• Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Florida, January 1981 - May 1981.
• Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Florida, January 1981 - May 1981.
• Research Economist, Center for Naval Analyses, September 1977 - September 1981.

• 1988-Present Expert consultant to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. Department of Energy. Reviewed the National Energy Modeling Systems (NEMS) and worked on problems related to energy forecasting and parameter estimation.

• 1996-Present Expert consultant to the Center for Naval Analyses Corporation. Give advice to the Navy and the Defense Department on a wide range of issues including: Computing the Costs and Benefits of Government Agencies, Logistics and Supply Chain Management, Privatization of Government Functions, R&D Investment Choices, Future Deployable Medical Platforms, and Recruitment, Training and Retention of Personnel.

• 2006-2007 Expert consultant to the American Gas Association (AGA).

• 1992-2004 Expert consultant to the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), Department of Commerce. Assisted the Department of Commerce in staffing and budget decisions by developing forecasting models for patent filings and patent renewal filings. Also, built a simulation model to analyze under and over capacity of computer workstations in their patent search facility in Crystal City.

• 1991-2003 Expert consultant to Washington Gas & Light Company. Worked on Demand Side Management Projects and served as an expert witness on gas price elasticity in a Rate case.

• 1995-1999 Expert consultant to Economics Resource Service (ERS), U.S. Department of Agriculture. Forecasted Retail Food Prices.

• 1995 Expert consultant to Bivings Woodell, Inc. Worked on a project that evaluates the performance of the top 125 firms listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.

• 1998-1999 Expert consultant to the American Economics Group. Developed models of Alcohol and Tobacco bootlegging and model analyzing the effect of the hotel tax.

• "Estimation of Some Limited Dependent Models with Application to Housing Demand" (with L.F. Lee), Journal of Econometrics, December 1978.
• "The Response of State Government Receipts to Economic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Counter-Cyclical Revenue Sharing Grants" (with R.C. Vogel), The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1979.
• "Returns to College Education: An Investigation of Self-Selection Bias Based on the Project Talent Data" (with L. Kenny, L.F. Lee, and G.S. Maddala), International Economic Review, October 1979.
• "Asymptotic Covariance Matrices of Two Stage Probit and Two Stage Tobit Methods for Simultaneous Equations Models with Selectivity" (with L.F. Lee and G.S. Maddala), Econometrica, March 1980.
• "Testing for Structural Change by the D-Methods in Switching Simultaneous Equations Models" (with L.F. Lee and G.S. Maddala), Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economic Statistics Section, August 1980.
• "Some Extensions of the Nerlove-Press Model" (with G.S. Maddala), Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Statistics Section, August 1980.
• "Estimation of a Child Spacing Model with the Cox Regression Technique" (with Phil Lurie), Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Statistics Section, August 1980.
• "Alternative Formulations of the Nerlove-Press Model" (with G.S. Maddala), Journal of Econometrics, May 1981.
• "Labor Force Earnings and College Choice of Young Women: An Examination of Selectivity Bias and Comparative Advantage" (with R.P.H. Fishe and P. Lurie), Economics of Education Review, Spring 1981.
• "Interpretation of Error Covariances with Non-Random Data: An Empirical Illustration of Returns to College Education," Atlantic Economic Journal, September 1981.
• "On Measuring Discrimination in Loan Market" (with G.S. Maddala), Housing Finance Review, September 1982.
• "Technical Training and Earnings: A Polytomous Choice Model with Selectivity" (with Lung-fei Lee), Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1984.
• "Market Structure and Rivalry: New Evidence with a Non-Linear Model" (with Michael Marlow and John Link), Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1984.
• "Sequential Selection and Selectivity in a Model of the Market for Bail Bond" (with A. Yezer), Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economics Section, August 1985.
• "Assessment of Pretrial Urine Testing in the District of Columbia" (with A. Yezer), National Institute of Justice: Issues and Practices, U.S. Department of Justice, December 1989.
• "Obtaining Forecast Standard Errors of Motor Gasoline Demand with Stochastic Simulation" (with F. Joutz), Short Term Energy Outlook: Supplement, Department of Energy, January 1991.
• "Comparison of BVAR and Unrestricted VAR Forecasting Models of Motor Gasoline and Distillate Prices and Quantities." (with F. Joutz), Short Term Energy Outlook: Supplement, Department of Energy, January 1992.
• "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Residential Pilot Study Energy Conservation Programs Conducted by Washington Gas, District of Columbia Division" (with Irene Olson), Proceedings of the Natural Gas Least Cost Planning Conference, Washington, D.C., April, 1992.
• "Evaluation of a Boiler/Furnace Replacement Pilot Program: Multivariate Regression Analysis Versus PRISM," (with Irene Olson) Proceedings of the 1992 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 4(1992), 169-176.
• "Using Stochastic Simulation to Test the Effect of Seasonal Adjustment on Forecast Standard Errors of Motor Gasoline Demand," (with Fred Joutz), International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 1992.
• Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Patent Application Filings," (with Joutz, Adams, Kim and Mastrogianis), Proceedings of the Federal Forecasters Conference, Washington D.C., September, 1993.
• "Measurement Error Bias In Gas Appliance Unit Energy Consumption Estimates For End Use Forecasting Models" (with Gloria D. Brown and Walter D. Woods), American Gas Association Forecasting Review, Vol. 4, April, 1994, 24-52.
• Forecasting State Motor Gasoline Demand with Shrinkage Estimators," (with Fred Joutz), Proceedings of the Federal Forecasters Conference, Washington D.C., October, 1994.
• "Bias in Estimates of Discrimination and Default in Mortgage Lending: The Effects of Simultaneity and Self-Selection" (with Robert Phillips and Anthony Yezer), Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol. 9, 1994, 197-217.
• "An Integrated Bayesian Vector Autogregression and Error Correction Model for Forecasting Electricity Consumption and Prices" (with Frederick Joutz and G. S. Maddala), Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 14, No. 3, May, 1995, 287-310.
• "Can Statistical Problems in Tests for Mortgage Loan Discrimination be Resolved?" (with Robert Phillips), in Fair Lending Analysis, Anthony Yezer, editor, American Bankers Association, 1995.
• "Bayesian Time Series Forecasting Models of Quarterly Residential Gas Demand for the District of Columbia" (with Frederick Joutz and Don Fouts) American Gas Association Forecasting Review, March, 1996, 23 - 39.
• Principles of Microeconomics Lecture Notes, Kendall/Hunt Publishers, Dubuque, IA, 1996.
• "The Impact of Motor Gasoline Taxes on Consumption and Revenue" (with Fred Joutz), Proceedings of the International Energy Economics Association, October, 1996.
• "Estimation des elasticites de court et de long termes de la demande d'electricite sur donnees de panel a partir d'estimateurs a restrecisseur" (with G. S. Maddala and Hongyi Li), In French, Economie & Prevision, Number 126, Volume 5, 1996.
• "Estimation of Short Run and Long Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators" (with Hongyi Li, G. S. Maddala and Frederick Joutz), Journal of Business and Economics Statistics, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 90 - 100, January, 1997.
• "Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Patent Application Filings" (with Joutz, Adams, Kim and Mastrogianis), Journal of Policy Modeling, pp. 491 - 535, Vol. 19(4), 1997.
• "A Stratified Two-Stage Sampling Design for Estimating Inventory Accuracy of an Ordinance Site," (with J. Jondrow and R. Trost) Center for Navy Analyses, CRM 99-107, September 1999.
• "Retail Food Price Forecasting at ERS: The Process, Methodology and Performance from 1984 to 1997" (with Joutz, Hallahan, Clauson and Denbaly), United States Department of Agriculture, ERS, Technical Bulletin Number 1885, May, 2000.
• "Bidding Behavior in DoD's Commercial Activities Competitions", (with Chris Snyder and Derek Trunkey), Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, pp. 21-42, vol. 20, No. 1, 2001.
• "Reducing Government Spending with Privatization Competitions: A Study of the Department of Defense Experience"(with Chris Snyder and Derek Trunkey), The Review of Economics and Statistics, pp. 108-117, 83(1), 2001.
• "Does Employer General Training Pay? Evidence from the U. S. Navy" (with Federico Garcia and Jeremy Arkes), Economics of Education Review, Volume 21/1, pp 19-27, 2002.
• "Estimation of Short Run and Long Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators" (with Hongyi Li, G. S. Maddala and Frederick Joutz), in Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Panel Data: Volume I, edited by Badi H. Baltagi, The International Library of Critical Writings Series, Edgar Elgar Publisher, 2003.
• "The Relationship of Weapon System Cannibalization to Weapon System Mission Capability", (with Cdr. James Hoover, Craig Goodwyn, James Jondrow, and Michael Ye), Military Operations Research, Volume 9, Number 2, pp. 31-42, 2004.
• "Is the U.S. Coast Guard"s Migrant Interdiction Program Working?" (with Kent Nordstrom) CNAC, CRM D0010204.A1/SR1, July, 2004.
• "Tired Titanium: A Fatigue-Based Approach to Aircraft Inventory Management and Acquisition Planning," (with Chad Meyerhoefer), Defense and Peace Economics, February, 2006.
• "Computing the Return on Noise Reduction Investments in Navy Ships: A Life-Cycle Cost Approach," (with M. Bowes, G. Shaw, R. Trost) Center for Naval Analyses, CNA Research Memorandum D0014732/A2, September 2006.
• "The Effect of Activation and Deployment on Selected Reserve Attrition Since 9/11." (with Michelle Dolfini-Reed, G Shaw, and D. Gregory), Center for Naval Analyses, , CNA Research MemorandumD0015629.A2/Final, March, 2007.
• "An Economic Analysis of Consumer Response to Natural Gas Prices", (with Fred Joutz), American Gas Association (AGA), March, 2007.
• "Statistical Analysis of Hearing Loss Among Navy Personnel", (with Geoffrey Shaw), Vol. 172, No. 4, Military Medicine, April, 2007.
• "Is the U.S. Coast Guard Drug Interdiction Program Working?" (with Lauren Bell, Kim Jackson, Jonathon Mintz, and Kent Nordstrom) CNA Research Memorandum, CRM D0016363.A2/Final, July, 2007.
• "Hearing Impairment in Navy Aviation Personnel After Leaving the Military Service," (with Geoffrey Shaw) CNA Research Memorandum CRM D0016781.A2/Final, November, 2007.

• "The Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) and Charitable Giving: Improved estimates of the tax-responsiveness of Donations," (With Chris Duquette).
• "Misleading Interpretation of Meta-analysis," (with Don Keller, Department of Psychology, GWU), February, 2005.
• "A Model to Study Consolidation and Its Impacts on MC Rates and other Readiness Measures." (with Craig Goodwyn and Michael Ye), Working paper.
• "Choosing R&D Technology Investments," (with Michael Ye), Working paper.
• "Paired Comparison in Choosing R&D Technology Investments," (with Michael Ye), Working paper.
• "Estimating the Deterrent Effect of Law Enforcement," (with Kent B. Nordstrom and Michael Ye), working paper.

• "A Model to Study Consolidation and its Impact on MC Rates and other Readiness Measures", Presented at the 71st Military Operations Research Society (MORS) on June 12, 2003 in Quantico, VA.
• "Computing the Return on Noise Reduction Investments in Navy Ships: A Life-Cycle Cost Approach". Presented at the Navy Workforce Conference, Arlington, VA, May, 2007.
• "Computing the Return on Noise Reduction Investments in Navy Ships: A Life-Cycle Cost Approach". Presented at the Western Economic Association (WEA) meetings, Seattle, WA, July, 2007.
• "Reserve Attrition Since September 11th: A Survival Analysis." Presented at the Western Economic Association (WEA) meetings, Seattle, WA, July, 2007.
• "Update on Analysis of hearing Loss". Presented at the Navy Workforce Conference, Arlington, VA, May, 2008.